Corn & Soybean Update from Matt Bennett | June 22
I hope you got the rain you wanted over the weekend…but from talking to many of you, I know it’s not necessarily the case. We ended up with .9 at our home farm down to .3 at the farm where we had the least. I’ll take it as I know many of you who had the bigger totals had plenty of wind and hail to go along with the rain. I’m trying to get back in the swing of things at home, but it’s kind of nice as there isn’t a ton going on now that the hay is mowed and the other mowing is done for now. Our corn and beans are sprayed and now we’re just watching Mother Nature. We have corn that likely tassels by the 4th of July, so we’re getting fairly far along…I like our chances at raising a big crop but certainly need to see more moisture soon. Keep me posted. firstname.lastname@example.org
The corn and bean markets were called lower for the overnight markets and traded as such for the nigh session. While losses of 20 cents or better were the rule, the day session saw things turn around, especially for beans. With bean sales on the morning wire as well as decent shipments, the tone around beans shifted and helped provide for a stronger close. Talks of decent coverages for rains with the bigger amounts not widespread were supportive. Additionally, some buzz about just how low the Safrinha corn crop could get wasn’t like to hurt matters. Outside markets likely had a positive influence on Monday. July crude oil settled up $2.02 at $73.66. The DOW settled up 606 points at 33,761. The September contract on the Dollar was .349 lower, settling at 91.860.
The corn market opened lower on the overnight and stayed with double-digit losses for much of the session. The day session brought some buying in but most contracts still settled lower. On the close, July corn settled up 4 cents at $6.59 ¼. This was 6 ¼ cents off the high and 23 ¼ cents off the low of day. Sep corn settled down 6 ¼ while Dec was down 9 ¼ cents at $5.57. The bull-spreading is a good sign some in the market don’t feel a bullish rally is quite over with. While basis levels haven’t been on fire of late, we also hear of solid pushes in the countryside. Weekly export inspections came in at 1.48 mmt, which was a solid number and keeps us from talks of major cancellations. We’re ahead of pace to meet the USDA goal and obviously well ahead of last year’s pace. The weekly crop progress report showed 65% of the crop rated good/excellent, which is well off of last week’s 68% and the prior week’s 72%...the first rating three weeks ago was 76%, so we’ve really headed south. While the rains over the weekend likely slowed the crop’s deterioration, my expectation moving forward is ratings stabilize if not improve with the poor/very poor growing in those areas where rain has been missed. This week, 6% of the crop was rated p/vp. My thoughts on this corn market are we could still see a rally, maybe towards the old highs, but weather would certainly have to be inclement to see it. I also see support unless weather is ideal and we add 3 or 4 million acres. My official guess on acres for the June planted acreage report is 93.6 or an increase of 2.5 million acres. Given that, it makes sense to have a floor under these prices in the event we turn off wet for most produce
Soybeans were also struggling on the overnight trade while the day session saw buying come in. July beans settled up 19 cents at $14.15. The close was 7 ½ cents off the high and 45 off the low of the day. Nov beans settled at $13.19 ¼, up 6 ¼ cents. Weekly export inspections were 175k tons. The crop report showed soybean plantings at 97% versus last week’s 94% and the 5-year-average of 94%. Beans rated good/excellent category at 60%. Last year, we had 70% of the crop rated as such. It’s hard for me to see how this bean crop is rated lower than many of our recent years and with extreme tightness on both old and new-crop beans…and to see the pressure we’ve seen at times. At the same time, these are excellent prices. My thought on acreage for next week’s report is we gain a million acres to put final planted acreage at 88.6. While I feel more acreage is likely necessary, great weather would certainly put pressure on prices. IF we see good rains for our operations, I can’t imagine how selling a few beans over $13 would be a bad idea.
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I hope you have a great week. Please let me know if I can help you in any way.