Corn & Soybean Update from Matt Bennett | June 29
I hope all is well around your place. Around ours, it’s wet! Holy smokes, we had a ton of rain around my place, but I know several who had more. While we had 5.7 inches for the weekend, some around Bloomington, Illinois as well as others in western Missouri had up to and over 10 inches! The forecasts leading up to the rain event of this past weekend seemed crazy, but the models had it correct for some. The big problem is many didn’t get much rain if any. With so many struggling to get the rain their crops need, we’re quickly becoming a feast versus famine situation with regards to the 2021 crop. I posted a poll to Twitter on Sunday asking how much rain people had and 42% said less than an inch. It’s too bad we couldn’t have spread those huge totals out to where everyone had a nice gentle rain…regardless, keep me posted on your situation. I’d be eager to hear from you. firstname.lastname@example.org
The corn and bean markets were called mixed to lower for the overnight markets and traded mixed to higher for most of the session. The day session saw both corn and beans take off and post solid gains on the day. This wasn’t expected after big rains occurred in some areas, but with distribution less than stellar, buyers stepped back in. I have to admit, the radar made it look like more folks had ample rain than the actual rain reported. The report this Wednesday is huge…no doubt about it. Everything could change quickly but barring a huge increase in acreage and/or a change in the weather for the western (esp NW) corn-belt, it may be tough to kill this market just yet. One interesting headline has the safrinha crop in Brazil getting hit with a frost this week…the last thing that struggling crop needs. Outside markets likely had a negative influence on Monday. August crude oil settled down $1.14 at $72.91. The DOW settled down 169 points at 34,164. The September contract on the Dollar was .032 higher, settling at 91.876.
The corn market opened steady to higher on the overnight and built on that during the day session. Posting solid gains, July corn settled up 38 ¾ cents at $6.75 ¼. This was a penny and a quarter off the high and 18 ½ cents off the low of day. Sep corn settled up 26 ½ cents while Dec was up 26 at $5.45 ¼. Weekly export inspections came in light at 1.008 mmt, which was under expectation and around 400k tons below a week ago levels. We’re still very much on pace to meet the USDA goal. The weekly crop progress report showed 64% of the crop rated good/excellent, which is just 1% below a week ago but under the average trade guess, which expected the crop to improve. One thing to keep an eye on is the poor/very poor category…and this week 8% of the crop was rated p/vp, 2% in excess of a week ago levels. It’s tough to figure out what a national yield may look like in 2021. There could be some incredible corn out there…I am blessed with a solid crop to this point and would assume a record yield is still possible for instance. However, a good chunk of the corn-belt is too dry. IF we see big yields in the eastern-corn-belt and really poor yields in the areas that are essentially drought-stricken, it would be extremely unlikely to see a big US yield. Acres are quite important on Wednesday…if we don’t see a huge increase, we likely have support close to last week’s lows. Stay tuned.
Soybeans were also called mixed but outperformed the opening call. July beans settled up 27 cents at $13.56 ¾. The close was 8 ¾ cents off the high and 30 ¾ off the low of the day. Nov beans settled at $13.11 ½, up 41 ¾ cents. Weekly export inspections were 104k tons. While within expectations, shipments were 70k below a week ago levels…somewhat typical for this point in the marketing-year. The crop report showed soybean emergence at 96% versus last week’s 91%. Beans rated good/excellent category at 60%. Last year, 71% of the crop rated as such. 9% of the bean crop was rated poor/very poor, which is the same as a week ago. For the bean market, it’s a bit of a different animal than corn. Beans are certainly an August crop, but it’s concerning we’re seeing ratings slip. Similar to corn, if we have a portion of the corn-belt that ‘burns up’, it’s going to be tough to see a 50-bushels national yield. Given how tight our old and new-crop stocks situations are, we need big acres and big yield to boot. IF you’ve had good rain though, it’s tough to not sell $13 beans to at least get a third or so of your crop protected. As always, market your farm’s beans for profit and attempt to tune out all the noise.
**For the strategies I talk about on here, please remember these are the tools I use for my farm. These are not recommendations but merely a way for the reader to see how I approach marketing for my operation. There are tons of good tools out there. For more information on markets, strategies and ways to set up a solid marketing plan, visit my website at https://agmarket.net
I hope you have a great week. Please let me know if I can help you in any way.