Corn & Soybean Update from Matt Bennett | July 8
I hope your week is going better than what the corn market has been performing. I know many of you have gotten some much needed rain, but of course not everyone has been so fortunate. While parts of the northwestern-corn-belt have been struggling with drought, several have reported a half inch up to a couple of inches of rain. Again, it’s not everyone, but there’s no doubt those who have received rain haven’t gone unnoticed. Around our place, we don’t need it too bad just yet, but the forecast is giving us some chances over the weekend. We’ll be pollinated pretty much everyone we farm other than river-bottoms by this time next week. While it was 90+ on Wednesday, the evenings are getting fairly-cool, so I’d think we’ll have solid pollination. Keep me posted on what’s happening around your operation…I’d love to hear from you. mbennett@agmarket.net
The corn and bean markets went down different roads at mid-week. While the corn market was down the 40-cent limit on Tuesday to start the holiday-shortened week, beans were down 90+ cents! Fortunately, beans recovered some of that on Wednesday while corn extended the losses. Rain we’ve seen already along with a bearish forecast for more precip and cooler temps have really taken their toll. While demand remains solid, talks of trend-line or above yields have entered the picture, which would certainly shore up our stocks situation. Outside markets likely had a mixed influence on Monday. August crude oil settled down $1.24 at $72.12. The DOW settled up 108 points at 34,568. The September contract on the Dollar was a shade higher, settling up .102 at 92.645.
Corn
The corn market was mixed on the overnight session, while the day session saw selling come in. On the close, July corn settled down 3 ½ cents at $6.52 ½ as it goes into delivery. Sep settled 9 ¼ cents lower at $5.42 ¾, 15 ¼ off the high and 11 ¼ off the low. The ethanol report from the Department of Energy’s EIA report will be released on Thursday due to the holiday. Crop condition reports on Tuesday showed the corn crop still rated 64% good to excellent which was the same as a week ago but below expectations. This corn market is volatile…times ten. It’s wild how fast it’s moving and should be respected by anyone who is active in their ‘hedge’ account. Hey, let’s be honest about prices. IF we’re settling Dec corn at $5.31 after a 50-cent move lower this week, that’s what you call a luxury. Now, I know not everyone has a crop coming…but we can say that every year. Given we have that this year in the month of July would appear to be a gift to me anyway. Keep your discipline and remember to run your numbers consistently. Even with a big drop in prices, a person can make serious money at some pretty common yields.
Soybean
Soybeans recouped some losses on the overnight trade, seeing prices as much as 40 cents higher. However, after giving some back, July beans settled up 22 ¾ cents at $13.86 ½…again as it goes into delivery. With August setting up 22 ½, we essentially got back about a quarter of Tuesday’s losses. The close for August was 21 ¼ cents off the high and 20 ½ off the low of the day. On Tuesday after the close, we got crop condition reports, which for beans was a bit friendly for sure. With 59% of the bean crop stated at good/excellent, we were a point lower than the previous week. With expectations to be better than the previous week, it helped shore up the market and keep us from losing even more ground. The acreage report is still fresh in the trade’s mind when it comes to beans anyway…which it should considering how tight the stocks situation is. With China coming in and inquiring about fall ’21 beans, it also helped to provide support. While I hate to be bullish up at these levels, I have to think we’ll have plenty of support under the market until we see what kind of crop we’re going to have…as we need a big yield no more acres than we have. With that being said…how can you go wrong selling November beans at $13.25 or better?
**For the strategies I talk about on here, please remember these are the tools I use for my farm. These are not recommendations but merely a way for the reader to see how I approach marketing for my operation. There are tons of good tools out there. For more information on markets, strategies and ways to set up a solid marketing plan, visit my website at https://agmarket.net
I hope you have a great week. Please let me know if I can help you in any way.